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I am afraid there isn't a simple answer. Many futures will represent physical commodities which will potentially have seasonality; for example, a corn future before the harvest and one after the harvest might be pretty different beasts. Just using the contract itself isn't so great either...

The choice of decay rate will vary by what you cover. For example, if you risk manage a natural gas trading desk, you might feel that [ recent changes in fracking / politics in the Ukraine / transport of liquified natural gas by tanking (instead of just by pipeline), or whatever ] might mean...