The probability matrix includes joint probabilities on the "inside" and unconditional (aka, marginal) probabilities on the outside. The key relationship is joint probability = unconditional * conditional.
Here is David's XLS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/thqkesz65niutil/1204-yt-probability-matrix.xlsx
Here is David's XLS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/thqkesz65niutil/1204-yt-probability-matrix.xlsx
