Financial Risk Manager (FRM, Topic 4: Valuation and Risk Models, Fixed Income, Bruce Tuckman Chapter 3, Returns, Spreads and Yields). The three basic term structure scenarios are: 1. Realized Forwards; 2. Unchanged Term Structure, and 3. Unchanged Yields. Realized Forwards implicitly assumes there is no risk premium in the term structure; i.e., if future short-term rates are predicted by forward rates, then there is no "excess" in the forward rate. On the other hand, if the yield curve is upward-sloping, an Unchanged Term Structure assumes the upward trajectory is entirely due to the risk premium.
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